Full disclosure: war in Ukraine is terrible.
Many of you will be horrified by the title here - “Putin has done us a favour?”. Why do I think that?
Before I answer that question, here is a little background.
The standard view by one general group of people within the spectrum of political views is that Putin is an evil despot. He has invaded his neighbour Ukraine in a step towards re-creating the former Soviet Union empire.
An alternative view is that he clearly expressed that Ukraine becoming a Nato member, and therefore Nato being right on his western border was the clearest of clear red lines. By expanding the EU and Nato ever eastward, the west goaded him into this response. This is exemplified by recent statements by President Biden that Ukraine’s Nato membership was Ukraine President Zelensky’s choice, and his choice alone.
All of this has unfolded as Europe has experienced an energy crisis over the 2021-2022 winter. In a push towards renewable energy and a target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, nuclear power plants and coal-powered plants are being mothballed in the UK, in Germany, and across Europe. In a speech in May, Fatih Birol, the head of the Paris-based International Energy Agency called for an end to investment in oil and gas. We do not need any more to be found, and existing gas and oil discoveries should be left in the ground. One month later he called for Opec to produce more oil to balance markets. Five months later he claimed that astronomically high gas prices in Europe’s main energy hubs (NBP in UK and TTF in Holland) were because Russia was not supplying enough gas to Europe. Meanwhile the UK’s own Department of Energy admits that renewable energy generation for the entire Q3 was down 17% and wind was down 30% from the year before.
Europe’s politicians have reacted in different ways. Rishi Sunak, perhaps highlighting has candidature for Prime Minister, called for more UK oil and gas production. Boris Johnson, perhaps seeing that potential challenge, echoed those calls days later. On the other hand, Ursula Von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, thinks that freedom from Russian energy hegemony lies in greater use of renewables. Robert Habeck German minister for the economy suggested that Europe could leverage its abilities in renewables with Russia. Recently, he has surprised by calling for the life extension of coal and nuclear plants slated for closure.
So, to return to the headline of this piece: why did Putin do us a favour? Imagine if his incursion into Ukraine were to happen in 2026, say, or 2030 rather than in 2022. Imagine further that the views of Von Der Leyen and like-minded politicians prevailed, and Europe doubled down on net zero, continued to shut in gas fields like Groningen (the largest in Europe), relied ever more heavily on renewables, and decreed electric vehicles only. Instead of supplying present generation tanks to Ukraine Nato allies might supply electric tanks.
Russian tank driver to commander: I have locked on an enemy tank.
Commander response: never mind the tank, get the charging truck behind it.